Software : Business : Finance : Business Valuation Model
The Business Valuation Model is software designed to provide an economical, efficient and effective business valuation. It combines relative indicators for future performance with basic financial data (Revenue, Variable and Fixed Costs) to value a business.
By uniquely applying your intuitive business and market knowledge a 3 year performance forecast with sensitivity analysis, investment return, and a business valuation is calculated. It is compact, easy to use, and requires minimal inputs.
Input should be based on your subjective views. These are translated into quantifiable values for model operation. There is no need to provide "perfect" answers. Use your industry knowledge to make informed estimates. The goal is to provide a streamline tool to indicate possible outcomes.
Outputs include a 3 year performance forecast with the ability to apply Sensitivity Analysis and produce Optimistic, Expected and Pessimistic forecasts. A Return on Investment and Business Valuation are provided for each forecast. Outputs are presented in tabular and graphical form.
This valuation method can be used for business purchase, sale, or establishment. Unlike many valuation methods The Business Valuation Model minimizes input requirements and focuses on determining the future value of any business. By building a forecast based on the internal and external factors affecting business performance it is possible to build investment return projections.
In reality a business is simply an investment medium and its value is determined by the future returns it offers. Being able to identify the factors that provide an opportunity to maximize these returns generates a solid base for both setting a valuation and developing plans to enhance business performance.
Existing and potential business owners who appreciate current business investment values can make informed decisions and maximize opportunities when they arise.
The Business Valuation Model is designed to provide an economical, efficient and effective means to assess the value of a business. The forecast input should be based on your subjective views. These are translated into quantifiable values for model operation. There is no need to provide "perfect" answers. Use your industry knowledge to make informed estimates. The goal is to provide a streamline tool to indicate possible outcomes. A recent business taxation return will assist in determining values for the Performance section. The Business Valuation Model combines Relative Indicators for future performance with basic financial data (Revenue, Variable Costs, and Fixed Costs) to value the business. This valuation method can be used for business purchase, sale, or establishment. It is compact, easy to use, and requires minimal inputs. Outputs include a 3 Year Forecast, Sensitivity Analysis, Investment Return, and calculated Business Valuation in tabular and graphical form.
Specific item help is also provided within the software via hyperlinks to related help information.
Input
All input is on the Input and Analysis Sheets. Click the tab or hyperlinks to access. Blue cells allow input.
Current Operating Performance Data
This section reviews the current performance of your business for a full year period. It is designed to assess the level of expenses that vary with your sales (Variable Costs) and those that don't (Fixed Costs). It also allocates a realistic labor cost for the owners effort. The focus is on cash flow excluding assets and taxation. Broad expense categories are provided. Labels in blue cells can be adjusted however they should reflect the original label type to ensure formula are applied correctly. Values can be based on the previous years tax return adjusted for current trading. Inputs do not have to be perfect but should reasonably reflect business operation.
Business Name or Identifier
Input a name for the business. This appears as an identifier on the Output Sheets.
Business Revenue
Input the Revenue generated by the business for the current year.
Expenses
Select your Expense input as Monetary or Percent. This allows you to input your Expenses directly in Monetary (Dollars, Pounds etc) or Percentage terms.
Variable Costs
Variable Costs vary with the volume of product or service you provide. Only include these costs in this section and allocate them into one of the six categories.
Materials & Supplies
Input the annual variable expense for materials and supplies
directly related to producing your product or providing your
service.
Labor excluding Owner
Input the annual variable expense for labor (excluding the
owner) directly related to producing your product or
providing your service. Labor expenses should include all
associated on-costs and benefits.
Labor Owner
Input the annual value of labor provided by the owner that
is directly related to producing your product or providing
your service. This variable expense should reflect the
effective labor effort and can be estimated as the cost of an
employee who could replace the owner. Labor expenses should
include all associated on-costs and benefits.
Distribution
Input the annual variable expense for distribution of your
product or service. This may include freight costs,
packaging, and vehicle running costs.
Marketing
Input the annual variable expense for marketing. Include
advertising, promotional publications, sponsorships, client
functions, and any marketing or sales expense. Marketing is
not essentially a variable expense, however it is assumed
that marketing does influence the level of sales and a
relationship exists between the level of marketing and the
level of sales. It is on this basis that it forms a component
of Variable Costs.
Other
Input any annual variable expenses not already accounted
for.
Total Variable Costs
This is the sum of the variable expenses. It is expressed as
a monetary value and as a percentage of revenue.
Fixed Costs
Fixed Costs are expenses which remain constant (up to a point) while the volume of sales vary. Only include these costs in this section and allocate them into one of the six categories.
Location
Input the annual fixed location expense. Include rent, power
and light, maintenance, building insurance, security, and
cleaning. If you own the property do not include purchase or
finance costs.
Administration
Input the annual fixed administration expense. Include
office phone, equipment costs, and stationary.
Labor excluding Owner
Input the annual fixed labor expense (excluding owner). This
should include any labor expense not already accounted for in
variable costs. Labor expenses should include all associated
on-costs and benefits.
Labor Owner
Input the annual value of fixed cost labor provided by the
owner. This should include the value of any labor which has
not already been accounted for in variable costs. This fixed
expense should reflect the effective labor effort and can be
estimated as the cost of an employee who could replace the
owner. Labor expenses should include all associated on-costs
and benefits.
Interest Costs
Input the annual fixed Interest Cost. Include only the
interest component of loan repayments. Principle components
reflect assets. It is recommended that the business initially
be valued with no Finance or Interest component i.e. 100%
equity. This ensures the valuation provides the required
return on the Total Investment. Once you have established
valuation details you can then insert Finance details to
determine the impact on the business.
Other
Input any annual fixed expenses not already accounted
for.
Total Fixed Costs
This is the sum of the fixed expenses. It is expressed as a
monetary value and as a percentage of revenue.
Operating Surplus
Operating Surplus reflects the before tax operating
profit/loss of the business for the full years trading. It is
calculated as the Revenue less Total Variable Costs less
Total Fixed Costs. It excludes asset investment. Assets
include property, equipment, and capital reinvestment in the
business. These investment components are considered in the
Investment section. The Operating Surplus represents the day
to day (short term) business performance.
Owner Cash Flow
Owner Cash Flow is the Operating Surplus plus the value of
any Labor provided by the Owner. If the owner provides no
labor for the business Owner Cash flow and Operating Surplus
will be equal.
Forecast Data
This section considers factors that influence future business performance. A relative indicator is used to reflect unit changes in these factors. The base year relative indicator for each factor is defined as 100%. Relative indicators for each of the next three years are applied to reflect likely changes in the unit cost or strength of the factor. Each indicator is relative to the prior year. A 10% increase from the previous year is reflected by a relative indicator of 110%. A 10% decrease from the previous year is reflected by a relative indicator of 90%. Relative indicators for costs reflect changes in the base unit of the expense such as labor costs per hour or material costs per unit.
Relative Indicator
Relative Indicators are required for each factor for Years 1 to 3. If there is no change from the previous year the Relative Indicator is 100%. You have provided Revenue and Costs details for the current Year. Year 1 is the year following the Current Year, Year 2 follows Year 1, and Year 3 follows Year 2.
Level of Competition
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider the number of
competitors, competitor strategies, potential new entrants.
This indicator has an inverse relationship to forecast
Business Revenue. All things being equal as the level of
competition increases Business Revenue decreases.
Market Strength
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider market growth,
technology & regulatory impacts and customer needs.
Market strength is an indicator of the demand for the type of
product or service you provide. This indicator has a direct
relationship to forecast Business Revenue. All things being
equal as market strength increases Business Revenue
increases.
Materials & Supplies Costs
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider the potential
changes in supplier pricing, sources of supply, your
bargaining power, demand for materials, and possible
alternative materials. This indicator has a direct
relationship to forecast Materials & Supplies expenses.
All things being equal as the unit cost of materials and
supplies increases this Variable Cost expense increases.
Labor Costs
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider market forces and
availability of skilled staff. This indicator has a direct
relationship to forecast Variable and Fixed Cost Labor
excluding Owner, and Labor Owner expenses. All things being
equal as the unit labor costs increase these labor expenses
increase. It is also used to determine future Owners External
Earning Power.
Interest Rates
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. This is percentage change
not actual values. For a current interest rate of 6% a
relative indicator of 110% in Year 1 equates to 6.6%, a
relative indicator of 110% in Year 2 takes this to 7.26%.
This indicator has a direct relationship to forecast Interest
expenses. All things being equal as interest rates increase
this Variable Cost expense increases.
Business Market Position
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider your position in
the market, and the impact of your current actions. This is a
measure of your standing relative to the competition as
perceived by potential consumers. If things will remain much
the same input 100%, indicating no change over the previous
year. If you have actions to improve the position of your
business by 10% then the input would be 110%. This indicator
has a direct relationship to forecast Business Revenue. All
thing being equal as market position increases Business
Revenue increases. Actions contributing to the business
position must be substantiated and implemented to have an
impact.
Variable Costs Efficiency
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. This should reflect changes
in the relationship between your Variable Costs and revenue.
If you have actions to improve your Variable Costs efficiency
(decrease variable costs) by 10% over the previous year input
110%. Consider changes in processes, distribution or the
materials used. This indicator has an inverse relationship to
forecast Variable Costs Materials & Supplies, Labor
excluding Owner, Labor Owner, Distribution, Marketing and
Other expenses. All things being equal as Variable Costs
Efficiency increases less materials, labor, distribution and
marketing resources are required resulting in a decrease in
these expenses. Actions must be substantiated and implemented
to have an impact.
Fixed Costs Efficiency
Input the percentage relative indicator to reflect the level
of change from the previous year. Consider changes in
administration processes and Fixed Cost labor requirements.
This indicator has an inverse relationship to forecast Fixed
Costs Administration, Labor excluding Owner, Labor Owner, and
Other expenses. All things being equal as Fixed Costs
efficiency increases less administration and labor resources
are required resulting in a decrease in these expenses. It
does not apply to Location and Finance expenses. Actions
contributing to the business position must be substantiated
and implemented to have an impact. You can use the Decision
Assistant Model to value your actions and determine their
business impact, this is available from the bizpeponline.com
web site.
Fixed Costs Flow-on
Input the percentage Fixed Costs Flow-on. This indicates the
estimated level of fixed costs adjustment to support revenue
variations. Fixed Costs are generally considered a constant
expense, however large sustained revenue variations place
pressure on fixed costs and usually result in an increased
fixed cost expense. This may include larger floor area, more
administration costs, or higher financing. The Fixed Costs
Flow-on percentage is the amount of increase in Fixed Costs
expense for a 100% increase in revenue. An fixed costs
flow-on of 20% reflects a 20% increase in Fixed Costs expense
for every 100% increase in revenue. This indicator has a
direct relationship to all forecast Fixed Cost expenses.
Valuation Data
This section provides data to value the business. Consideration is given to the owners earning power outside the business, the replacement value of business assets and their useful life. Property (Real Estate) valuations are considered constant throughout the period. Annual replacement costs for other business assets are calculated as the Replacement Value divided by the Asset Life. This provides for constant reinvestment to maintain the business. This data is combined with the business forecast to determine a business valuation.
Owners Time Commitment to Business
Input the percentage of work time the owner commits to the
business. This is used to determine the owners return for
effort and indicates the available amount of owner resource.
Available resource will be applied to any forecast labor
increase in Fixed, then Variable Costs where the owner
currently contributes.
Owners External Earning Power
Input the annual income the owner could earn if employed
outside the business. Include any benefits. The actual return
from the business must compensate the owner for giving up
External Earnings and provide the required return on
Investment. A return on Investment only occurs after the
owner has been compensated for External Earnings given
up.
Replacement Value of Business Assets
Input the replacement value of physical business assets.
Exclude property. Consider vehicles, plant and equipment.
This forms a component of the total business investment.
Life of Assets (years)
Input the average life of the assets. The Replacement Value
of Business Assets will be divided by the Life of Assets to
provide an indication of annual asset depreciation expense.
This will be used in determining the owners return from the
business.
Market Value of Property
Input the estimated market value of property owned by the
business. Property values are considered stable over the
forecast period and no depreciation is allowed for. This
forms a component of the total business investment.
Other Investment in Business
Input the value of any other investment made in the
business. Consider operating capital and goodwill paid. This
forms a component of the total business investment. This
amount will be adjusted in-line with your Valuation
Analysis.
Total Investment
This indicates the Total Investment in the business. It is
the sum of Replacement Value of Business Assets, Market Value
of Property, and Other Investment in Business.
Financed Amount
This is the amount of finance carried by the business. It is
recommended that the business initially be valued with no
Finance or Interest component i.e. 100% equity. This ensures
the valuation provides the required return on the Total
Investment. Once you have established a valuation you can
then insert Finance details to determine the impact on the
business. The calculated Interest Rate is based on the
Financed Amount and the annual Interest Cost from the
Performance Data. No principle reduction is considered during
the forecast period, only interest expense, principle
components reflect assets.
Equity Investment
This is the average annual Return on Total Investment over a
three year period.
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis allows you to adjust your Relative Indicators by a set percentage to generate Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts.
Optimistic Input
Input the percentage improvement in Relative Indicators to
generate an Optimistic Forecast. If you feel it is
"reasonably likely" your Relative Indicators are 20% too low,
input 20%.
Pessimistic Input
Input the percentage degrade in Relative Indicators to
generate a Pessimistic Forecast. If you feel it is
"reasonably likely" your Relative Indicators are 20% too
high, input 20%.
Business Revenue
This is the forecast revenue generated by the business.
Optimistic
This is the forecast based on your Optimistic improvement to
Relative Indicators.
Expected
This is the forecast based on the Relative Indicators you
provided as input.
Pessimistic
This is the forecast based on your Pessimistic degradation
of Relative Indicators.
Operating Surplus
This is the Revenue less Variable and Fixed Costs including
payment to the owner for labor provided.
Owner Cash Flow
This is the Operating Surplus plus any labor Earnings of the
Owner.
Business Return
Business Return is the Owners Cash Flow less a Depreciation
Allowance and Owners External Earning Power. A Depreciation
Allowance is required for the long term maintenance of the
business. It is calculated as the Replacement Value of
Business Assets divided by the Asset Lifetime. If the
Depreciation Allowance is not reinvested business performance
and value will decrease. The Owners External Earning Power
reflects the income given up by the owner to work in the
business. This must be recouped through the business before
there is any return on investment generated.
Valuation Analysis
Simply input your desired Return on Investment to calculate your Business Valuation. If you have applied Sensitivity Analysis 3 valuations will be calculated; Optimistic, Expected, and Pessimistic.
% Return on Total Investment
This is the Business Return as a percentage of the Total
Investment. It is an indicator of the quality of the business
investment. The higher the Return on Investment the better
the investment. However as the level of risk increases a
higher Return on Investment is required to compensate for the
risk taken. Business Return is the Owners Cash Flow less a
Depreciation Allowance and Owners External Earning Power.
Required Return on Investment
This is the Business Return as a percentage of the Total
Investment. It is an indicator of the quality of the business
investment. The higher the Return on Investment the better
the investment. However as the level of risk increases a
higher Return on Investment is required to compensate for the
risk taken. Business Return is the Owners Cash Flow less a
Depreciation Allowance and Owners External Earning Power.
Expected Valuation
This Valuation is based on the Expected Forecast and the
required average 3 Year Return on Investment. It represents
the Total Investment in the business and is an indication of
Sale or Purchase price. Based on the Expected Forecast this
is the maximum Investment that should be applied to this
business to achieve the required Return on Investment.
Optimistic Valuation
This represents the Optimistic Valuation (high). It provides
the required average 3 Year Return based on the Optimistic
Forecast. However if the business does not provide a return
inline with the Optimistic forecast the return on Investment
will be less than required at this valuation.
Pessimistic Valuation
This represents the Pessimistic Valuation (low). It provides
the required average 3 Year Return based on the Pessimistic
Forecast. If the business provides a return greater than the
Pessimistic forecast the return on Investment will exceed
that required at this valuation.
Update Valuation
Input your Valuation and click the Update Button to generate
new Return details. The Valuation will normally be the
Expected Return Valuation.
Output Sheets
Summary outputs are included on the Sensitivity and Valuation Analysis Sheets. Details are in tabular form on the Results Sheets and graphical form on the Chart Sheets. To display Sheets click the associated button or tab.
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis allows you to adjust your Relative Indicators by a set percentage to generate Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts.
Valuation Analysis
Simply input your desired Return on Investment to calculate your Business Valuation. If you have applied Sensitivity Analysis 3 valuations will be calculated; Optimistic, Expected, and Pessimistic.
Expected Results
Full tabular results for your Expected Forecast and Return on Investment.
Optimistic Results
Full tabular results for your Optimistic Forecast and Return on Investment.
Pessimistic Results
Full tabular results for your Pessimistic Forecast and Return on Investment.
Forecast Revenue Chart
3 Year Forecast Revenue Chart; Optimistic, Expected and Pessimistic.
Forecast Return Chart
3 Year Forecast Return Chart; Optimistic, Expected and Pessimistic. Return is the Owners Cash Flow less the Depreciation Allowance and Owners External Earning Power.
Operating Surplus Chart
3 Year Expected Operating Surplus Chart including Variable and Fixed Costs.
Surplus & Return Chart
3 Year Expected Operating Surplus on Sales, Return on Sales, and Return on Total Investment percentages.
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Example of Pessimistic Business Valuation Model| Pessimistic Results - Business Valuation Model Excel 32 | |||||
| Pessimistic Forecast degraded by | 20% | ||||
| My Business | |||||
| Current Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | 3 Year Average | |
| Business Revenue | 500 000 | 542 085 | 563 768 | 598 858 | 568 237 |
| Expenses | |||||
| Variable Costs | |||||
| Materials & Supplies | 10 000 | 11 117 | 11 673 | 12 399 | 11 730 |
| % Revenue | 2,0% | 2,1% | 2,1% | 2,1% | 2,1% |
| Labor excluding Owner | 200 000 | 214 900 | 222 880 | 254 717 | 230 832 |
| % Revenue | 40,0% | 39,6% | 39,5% | 42,5% | 40,6% |
| Labor Owner | 50 000 | 49 790 | 51 339 | 54 047 | 51 725 |
| % Revenue | 10,0% | 9,2% | 9,1% | 9,0% | 9,1% |
| Distribution | 20 000 | 21 175 | 21 175 | 22 493 | 21 615 |
| % Revenue | 4,0% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,8% | 3,8% |
| Marketing | 10 000 | 10 588 | 10 588 | 11 247 | 10 807 |
| % Revenue | 2,0% | 2,0% | 1,9% | 1,9% | 1,9% |
| Other | 20 000 | 21 175 | 21 175 | 22 493 | 21 615 |
| % Revenue | 4,0% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,8% | 3,8% |
| Total Variable Costs | 310 000 | 328 745 | 338 830 | 377 396 | 348 323 |
| Total Variable Costs % | 62,0% | 60,6% | 60,1% | 63,0% | 61,3% |
| Gross Profit | 190 000 | 213 340 | 224 939 | 221 462 | 219 914 |
| Gross Profit % | 38,0% | 39,4% | 39,9% | 37,0% | 38,7% |
| Mark-up Equivalent | 61,3% | 64,9% | 66,4% | 58,7% | 63,1% |
| Fixed Costs | |||||
| Location | 40 000 | 40 842 | 41 275 | 41 977 | 41 365 |
| % Revenue | 8,0% | 7,5% | 7,3% | 7,0% | 7,3% |
| Administration | 30 000 | 30 631 | 30 469 | 29 795 | 30 299 |
| % Revenue | 6,0% | 5,7% | 5,4% | 5,0% | 5,3% |
| Labor excluding Owner | 50 000 | 51 052 | 52 305 | 54 217 | 52 525 |
| % Revenue | 10,0% | 9,4% | 9,3% | 9,1% | 9,2% |
| Labor Owner | 10 000 | 10 210 | 10 461 | 10 843 | 10 505 |
| % Revenue | 2,0% | 1,9% | 1,9% | 1,8% | 1,8% |
| Interest Costs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| % Revenue | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| % Revenue | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| Total Fixed Costs | 130 000 | 132 736 | 134 511 | 136 833 | 134 693 |
| Total Fixed Costs % | 26,0% | 24,5% | 23,9% | 22,8% | 23,7% |
| Total Expenses | 440 000 | 461 480 | 473 340 | 514 229 | 483 017 |
| Operating Surplus | 60 000 | 80 605 | 90 428 | 84 629 | 85 220 |
| Operating Surplus % | 12,0% | 14,9% | 16,0% | 14,1% | 15,0% |
| Owner Cash Flow | 120 000 | 140 605 | 152 228 | 149 519 | 147 450 |
| Owner Cash Flow % | 24,0% | 25,9% | 27,0% | 25,0% | 25,9% |
| LESS | |||||
| Depreciation Allowance | 12 500 | 12 763 | 12 899 | 13 118 | 12 926 |
| Owners External Earning Power | 60 000 | 60 000 | 62 160 | 65 890 | 62 683 |
| Business Return | 47 500 | 67 842 | 77 170 | 70 511 | 71 841 |
| Return on Sales | 9,5% | 12,5% | 13,7% | 11,8% | 12,6% |
| Total Investment | 290 023 | ||||
| Return on Total Investment | 16,4% | 23,4% | 26,6% | 24,3% | 24,8% |
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